diff --git a/.changeset/sweet-zoos-clap.md b/.changeset/sweet-zoos-clap.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..8c76f4abd7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.changeset/sweet-zoos-clap.md
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+---
+'@backstage/plugin-catalog-backend': patch
+---
+
+Fixed bug in stitching queue gauge that included entities that are scheduled in the future.
diff --git a/plugins/catalog-backend/src/stitching/progressTracker.ts b/plugins/catalog-backend/src/stitching/progressTracker.ts
index 9e00a1a01b..8c305b4978 100644
--- a/plugins/catalog-backend/src/stitching/progressTracker.ts
+++ b/plugins/catalog-backend/src/stitching/progressTracker.ts
@@ -54,7 +54,8 @@ export function progressTracker(knex: Knex, logger: LoggerService) {
   stitchingQueueCount.addCallback(async result => {
     const total = await knex<DbRefreshStateRow>('refresh_state')
       .count({ count: '*' })
-      .whereNotNull('next_stitch_at');
+      .whereNotNull('next_stitch_at')
+      .where('next_stitch_at', '<=', knex.fn.now());
     result.observe(Number(total[0].count));
   });